JD Vance and Josh Shapiro Lead 2028 Election Odds

With Donald Trump officially inaugurated as the President of the United States, Bookies.com released odds on Wednesday on which candidates are most likely to succeed Trump as president in 2028. Other than Trump, the betting market was one of the biggest winners of 2024, once again proving more accurate than the polling industry.

It's early – very early – but here is who the market views as the potential frontrunners for the 2028 presidential election:

JD Vance (R) | +250 (28.6%)

Josh Shapiro (D) | +950 (9.5%)

Michelle Obama (D) | +1200 (7.7%)

Tulsi Gabbard (R) | +1200 (7.7%)

Mark Kelly (D) | +1250 (7.4%)

Gavin Newsom (D) | +1400 (6.7%)

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) | +1400 (6.7%)

Andy Beshear (D) | +1500 (7.7%)

Kamala Harris (D) | +1500 (6.3%)

Ron DeSantis (R) | +1500 (6.3%)

Nikki Haley (R) | +1700 (5.6%)

Wes Moore (D) | +1700 (5.6%)

Gretchen Whitmer (D) | +1800 (5.3%)

Tim Scott (R) | +2500 (3.9%)

The Field* | +1400 (7.7%)

*Includes, among others, Ted Cruz (R), Lyle Doggett (D), Brian Kemp (R), Maura Healey (D), Pam Bondi (R), Marco Rubio (R)

NEW YORK - OCTOBER 01: Republican vice presidential candidate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), and Democratic vice presidential candidate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, participate in a debate at the CBS Broadcast Center on October 1, 2024 in New York City. This is expected to be the only vice presidential debate of the 2024 general election. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

While the list of potential Republican candidates is impressive – including Ramaswamy, Gabbard, and DeSantis – Trump chose Vance as his running mate, in part, to inherit the American First movement after the completion of his second term.

Despite some initial criticism of the pick, Vance showed his worth by mopping the floor with Tim Walz during the vice presidential debate in October.

Vance is a natural successor to keep the borders safe, the economy strong, crime at a minimum and peace in the Middle East. At least as of today, four years out.

Speaking of Tampon Tim, he did not crack the top 20. 

Apparently, the flamboyant knucklehead (his words) legacy of leaving his soldiers in the combat zone and letting Minnesota cities burn in the name of George Floyd doesn't signal "future President of the United States."

We also don't buy into Kamala Harris as a viable candidate after skirting the Democratic primary process to secure the nominee this past summer.

In fact, Democratic primary voters have lacked a say in their straight elections. The party colluded against Bernie Sanders twice, clearing the way for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. Harris was then installed in 2024 after the party chieftains (mainly Nancy Pelosi) colluded with donors to freeze any further donations to Biden's campaign.

Therefore, we reject the market listing Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as the favorite. The party showed a dark resistance to Jews over the past year and a half, particularly following the events of Oct. 7.  We cannot fathom a party that accepts Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib allowing Shapiro to earn the nomination.

That said, Shapiro appears to be the Democrats' strongest candidate four years out.

Gavin Newsom faces an uphill battle. America does not want to be in California. Who would? The governor's handling of Covid was among the worst of any state, and the ongoing wildfires present a travesty for which he'll have to answer eventually.

The prediction here is that the next Democratic presidential nominee will be an out-of-nowhere candidate who lacks any ties to Joe Biden, who is undoubtedly an indictment on the party moving forward.

According to the internal Democratic polling agency Blueprint, swing voters resented Harris because of her ties to Biden and hyper-focus on culture war issues like abortion, race, and transgenderism.

Wokeness – along with the border and the economy – cost Harris the election. If the Democrats trot out another woke in 2028, like Gretchen Whitmer, Republicans will win back-to-back presidential elections.

(Let's hope they trot out another woke.)

Put simply, a chasm between Democrats and ordinary people exists. And there aren't many currently elected Democrats equipped to bridge that gap.