Atlanta Picking Michael Penix Jr., NOT A Shock To All, And It's A Great Move | Glenn Guilbeau
NEW ORLEANS - There are about three solid months of non-stop, exhausting, over-the-top-and-bottom pre-NFL Draft coverage annually that employs various experts in a cottage industry gone crazy. We could have the draft in March, and it wouldn't make any picks any better or worse.
So, I find it more shocking that people have been shocked by the Atlanta Falcons taking Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick of the NFL Draft's first round Thursday night than by the pick itself.
If you were paying attention, Kirk Cousins, throngs of media members, Falcons fans, and fans everywhere, you would have been prepared for the possibility. It's the NFL - the No Family League.
New Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins had seven seasons of 9-7 or worse out of nine as Minnesota's starter from 2015 through 2023. (Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)
But Cousins, whom the Falcons just acquired as a free agent on March 13 for a four-year contract at $180 million ($100 million guaranteed), said he was "shocked" and "disappointed," through his agent Mike McCartney, who was equally aghast, as if Cousins has been in the Falcons family for years.
"We had no idea this was coming," McCartney huffed. "The truth is the whole league had no idea this was coming. We got no heads up. Kirk got a call from the Falcons when they were on the clock. That was the first we heard. It never came up in any conversation."
I love it when agents get beat at their own game.
"No heads up?" Uh, Mike, why don't you get your head out of your bank account for a minute and watch ESPN or read something?
"Conversation?" Really. You are paid handsomely to keep up - not be told.
And Cousins, it's not like you're Matt Ryan, not even close. So, get over it and get to work. You're also going to be 36 before the season starts, and you're coming off a significant Achilles tear for someone that age. And you look and play more like the next Derek Carr free agent signing than the next Drew Brees free agent signing.
Kirk Cousins Is The Next Derek Carr
Cousins, like Carr, seems to have "Average" emblazoned on his helmet. Cousins is 1-3 as a playoff starter. Carr came to the Saints 0-1 as a playoff starter through nine seasons. Brees came to the Saints as a free agent in 2006 with an 0-1 mark as a playoff starter, but that was only after four seasons starting in San Diego. He was 4-1 in the postseason as a Saint with a Super Bowl title through the 2009 season, which was his fourth in New Orleans.
So, Cuz, you should feel special that the team told you it was picking Penix right before they did. Many established players on teams for years - not weeks - have learned that their employer picked someone high at their position from the media.
Atlanta first round pick Michael Penix Jr. impressed virtually everyone at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis last month. (Getty Images)
Yeah, they're paying you a lot of money, but they wanted to make sure they got you - overpriced or not. Don't confuse that with a secure job. Are you afraid of the competition of Penix? Perhaps you should be. He's really good, and he's little older than most rookies. He'll be 24 next month. He's had some injury issues, too, but he's been 100 percent healthy for the last two seasons.
CLAY TRAVIS: Falcons Made ‘Nonsensical’ Pick
As far as the money for Cousins, since when does fiscal irresponsibility matter in the No Fiscality League? These guys spend and make money like Hollywood producers. And they keep making so much money that their spending is all relative. Plus, this is money for quarterbacks. That's a completely different category.
I usually don't even follow the draft until about a day before it starts because of all the hype, and I really grow tired of Mel Kiper's hair. And, by the way, what else does he do? But even I heard last Monday that there was a chance the Falcons may take Penix, who by the way is an excellent quarterback.
Michael Penix Jr. To Falcons Discussed Well Before Draft
So, Kirk and Mike, what were you doing Monday? Here is a USA Today headline from April 22 - four days before the draft opened on Thursday night:
"Falcons could use top pick on Michael Penix Jr., says Adam Schefter."
Schefter, you may know, covers the NFL for ESPN.
"One NFL general manager said he believes, ‘There is an undercurrent of support for Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix,'" Schefter reported. "There now is speculation Penix could go as high as No. 8 to the Falcons."
Again, that was written last MONDAY. It shouldn't be a shock on Thursday night.
"Look, there's always picks that are kind of surprising to you," Saints coach Dennis Allen said Thursday night after the Penix pick.
But the feeling at the headquarters of the No. 1 rival of the Falcons for decades was not of shock.
"We'll see how that goes," Allen said. "But I don't think that's anything that's kind of uncommon. We've seen that throughout the league. You have a quarterback, and you draft a young guy and give him an opportunity to come in and sit and develop. Nothing really shocks me too much."
Allen may quietly hope the Falcons "sit" Penix and play Cousins. He and his staff have long been very impressed with Penix.
"Anybody who's seen him play is not going to say Michael Penix is not a special player," Saints insider reporter Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football said. "So I don't hate the theory behind it. That's what you do at quarterback, and currently it looks like the Packers in hindsight weren't crazy when they took Jordan Love when Aaron Rodgers was still in his prime."
Former Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers didn't like it when the Packers drafted QB Jordan Love in the first round in 2020, but it proved to be brilliant. (Getty Images)
The Packers picked Love out of Utah State with the 26th pick of the first round in 2020. He backed up Rodgers for three seasons before becoming a very good starter this past season, finishing ninth in QBR. The Packers took Roders with the 24th pick of the first round in 2005. And he backed up Brett Favre for three seasons before becoming a high end starter in 2008 and went on to become one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history before leaving for the New York Jets.
While Joe Montana was still one of the greatest ever with San Francisco in 1987, the 49ers acquired Steve Young, who backed up Montana for four seasons before becoming the starter in 1991.
Atlanta Falcons Made Wise Forward Thinking Move
It is wise to find the next quarterback while you have the quarterback, particularly with an iffy one like Cousins, regardless of how much money you paid him. Two wrongs don't make a right. And not taking Penix could have been Wrong No. 2 if Cousins doesn't pan out for Wrong No. 1. You heard it here first, Penix will have a few moments this coming season, a few more with a handful of starts in 2025 and take over as the starter full time in 2026. Competition will make both better, unless Cousins can't handle it.
The Saints did not take the above approach as Brees approached the end in 2018 and ‘19 and finally ’20. And they're still paying for it in the win column and likely will for a few more years at best, and that's more costly than free agent, disposable money in the NFL.
"We've watched a team (the Saints) miss the playoffs three straight years because they haven't figured that position out yet," Triplett said. "You (Saints fans) can't really mock a team (the hated Falcons) for that."
Yes, the Falcons future at quarterback looks much brighter than that of the Saints and many other teams - short term and long term.
"It was a peculiar pick, yes," NFL Draft expert Mike Detillier of WWL Radio said Friday. "But I wasn't shocked. And here's the thing. You really think he's going to sit for three years? No way. He's going to play quicker than you think. He's that good."
Atlanta Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot (right) saw firsthand in New Orleans as assistant GM what can happen when NFL teams do not plan for the future at QB when Drew Brees retired after 2020 season. (Getty Images)
Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot was trying to soothe poor Cousins' hurt feelings, his fan base's shock, and owner Arthur Blank's questions when he said this about the Penix pick:
"If he (Penix) sits for four or five years, that's a great problem to have because we're doing so well at that position."
That's a public relations comment. Fontenot knows Penix is not going to sit more than two or three years like Love and Rodgers and Young before him.
The NFL is all about the quarterback. That should come as no shock to anyone, hopefully. And the Falcons have two.
Fontenot saw what happened when the Saints had basically zero players at quarterback post Brees. He was the Saints' director of pro scouting from 2013-19 and the team's assistant general manager and vice-president of pro personnel before becoming Atlanta's GM in 2021.
Fontentot learned in New Orleans just how average the present and future can become when one does not plan for the future at quarterback. After a season of Derek Carr, the majority of Saints fans and probably a quiet few in the front office may be wishing they had a Michael Penix Jr. to go to as a second option. Or maybe a Will Levis, the No. 33 pick of the 2023 draft by Tennesee who had a solid rookie year, instead of who the Saints took at No. 29 of the first round last year. That was defensive tackle Bryan Bresee with a B for Bust.
If Cousins goes south and Penix performs well, Fontenot will be hailed a genius, if he's still around.
Because if the Falcons do not start winning soon, Fontenot may not be the Atlanta GM who reaps the benefit of the Penix Pick for years to come.