3 'Locks' For The NBA Monday: Cavaliers-Knicks, Rockets-Spurs, Jazz-Mavericks

I went radio silent on the NBA front this past weekend because I was traveling Saturday and Sunday's NBA card sucked. Plus, there were more important sporting events: College football, NFL Week 8, and the first two World Series games between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.

But, I did sneak a few NBA bets via X, @Geoffery_Clark. Unfortunately, I have work to do because I'm down a little over a unit (u) through the first week of the NBA. Fortunately, betting on basketball is my favorite thing and Monday's 11-game NBA slate has a few actionable contests. 

NBA Best Bets: Monday, October 28th 

• Bet 1.1u on the New York Knicks -2.5 (-110) vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers at FanDuel.
• Bet 1.1u on the UNDER 219.5 in the Houston Rockets vs. the San Antonio Spurs at Fanatics Sportsbook.
• Bet 1.1u on the Dallas Mavericks -11.5 (-110) vs. the Utah Jazz at BetMGM.

Cavaliers at Knicks (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET

It's a sell-high spot for Cleveland, which is 3-0, all three wins by double digits. But, the Cavs beat three sh*tty teams: Toronto Raptors, Detroit Pistons, and Washington Wizards. The Knicks were -4.5 favorites in their home opener vs. the Indiana Pacers on Friday, and the Cavaliers are not 2.0 points better than the Pacers. 

New York rolled Indy 123-98 Saturday after getting crushed by the Boston Celtics 132-109 on opening night. However, I'm not downgrading the Knicks because of that loss. The Celtics got their championship rings and hung a banner, and NYK has two new starters: C Karl-Anthony Towns (KAT) and wing Mikal Bridges. 

Also, Cleveland has one of the worst defensive backcourts in the Association and New York PG Jalen Brunson was second-team All-NBA last season and fifth in MVP voting. Granted, Brunson stunk last season vs. the Cavaliers. He averaged 14.3 points per game (PPG) on 37.5% shooting. 

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson drives past Cleveland Cavaliers All-Star Donovan Mitchell  at Madison Square Garden. (Brad Penner-Imagn Images)

Nevertheless, Brunson should have more room to take Cleveland defenders off the dribble Monday because of the spacing KAT and Bridges provide. Towns is one of the best shooting bigs ever and can pull Cleveland C Jarrett Allen and PF Evan Mobley out of the paint. 

Lastly, this has been a bad spot for the Cavaliers. Including the regular season and playoffs, Cleveland has lost six straight games as slight road underdogs (+3 or less) with a -16.2 scoring margin. Ultimately, the Knicks should be at least -3.5 favorites vs. the Cavs on Monday. 

Prediction: Knicks 115, Cavaliers 109 

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UNDER 219.5 in Rockets at Spurs, 8 p.m. ET

This is the second of a home-and-away back-to-back between these teams with San Antonio winning the first, 109-106, Saturday. That game had a 98.4 pace, and the average NBA pace is 100.7. Rockets-Spurs have gone Under the total in four straight meetings by an average of 21.4 PPG. 

San Antonio has the second-lowest 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) in the NBA and Houston is 27th in true shooting rate, which accounts for shooting from inside and outside the arc and the foul line. And, this isn’t a "small sample size" thing because the Rockets were 25th in true shooting last season. 

Houston's poor shooting makes it easier for San Antonio big Victor Wembanyama to protect the paint. The Rockets went 13 for 41 from behind the arc against the Spurs Saturday and Wembanyama blocked a game-high three shots. Wemby averaged 4.3 blocks and 12.8 rebounds with a 96 defensive rating in four games vs. Houston last season. 

For context, the Minnesota Timberwolves had an NBA-best 109.0 defensive rating last season. My numbers say the Rockets will get revenge on the Spurs on Monday because it's hard to beat the same team consecutively. That said, I have a stronger conviction for the UNDER 219.5, down to 217. 

Prediction: Rockets 109, Spurs 105

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Jazz at Mavericks (-11.5), 8:30 p.m. ET

I don't typically bet double-digit favorites in the NBA, but I think Dallas will stomp Utah on Monday. The Mavs were second in 3PAr last season, and the Jazz were last in defensive 3-point percentage and 27th in 3-point attempts allowed per game.

After acquiring SG Klay Thompson this offseason, the Mavericks should be a better 3-point shooting team. Thompson averaged 29.5 PPG with a 72.5% true shooting rate and a 143 offensive rating in four meetings with Utah last season.

The Mavs are 8-1 straight up (SU) and 6-3 against the spread (ATS) with a +13.3 scoring margin in their last nine home games vs. the Jazz. Dallas closed as -8.5 home favorites in a 120-109 win over San Antonio Thursday, and the Spurs are more than 2.0 points better than Utah. 

Last season, the Jazz were 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS with a -8.0 spread differential as +10 road underdogs or higher. The Mavericks are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS as -10 favorites or greater with a +5.1 ATS margin. 

Prediction: Mavericks 124, Jazz 107

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.